17 Jul · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OF
🇨🇿Ondrej Fiklik
ELO 1604
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fiklik
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1565
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Prochazka🌟Prochazka covers set handicap as underdog 92% (12)
Fair odds · Fiklik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.