17 Jul · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kus
ELO 1524
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kus
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1493
FormLLLWW
53%
47%
🌟Chvojka covers set handicap as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Kus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H6-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.