17 Jul · 09:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1555
FormWWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Pawlik
MJ
🇨🇿Michal Janik
ELO 1451
FormLLLLL
58%
42%
🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 21% (14)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~73 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+104
H2H7-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+104)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-1)