17 Jul · 15:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1565
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Prochazka
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1514
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Prochazka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.