17 Jul · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1433
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Filipek
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1410
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
🌟Marat goes over total as underdog 68% (56)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H6-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.