17 Jul · 14:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1493
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Langer
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1549
FormLLWLW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 68% (81)
Fair odds · Langer
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H52-45
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (52-45)