17 Jul · 13:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1530
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kindl
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1508
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Raska🌟Kindl goes over total as favourite 74% (27)
Fair odds · Kindl
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.