17 Jul · 16:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇨🇿Jonas Rak
ELO 1541
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rak
MZ
🇨🇿Marek Zaskodny
ELO 1488
FormWLLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Rak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.