17 Jul · 16:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1478
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tlusty
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1467
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H39-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.