17 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1516
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Macurak
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1530
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
🌟Cizek goes over total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H9-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.