17 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1440
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1465
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.