17 Jul · 20:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1440
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Branny
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1410
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Branny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.