17 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1478
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Koutnik
VK
🇨🇿Vojtech Koutnik
ELO 1524
FormWWLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Koutnik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (22)
Fair odds · Koutnik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.