17 Jul · 17:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1530
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1576
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
🌟Moravec stays under total as favourite 78% (18)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.