17 Jul · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Pros
ELO 1460
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pros
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1408
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Pros
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.