17 Jul · 17:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1478
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jr
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1439
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (53)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H28-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.