17 Jul · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1412
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1465
FormWLWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.