17 Jul · 22:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1410
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lorenc
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1412
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Lorenc
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.