17 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1606
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skvarskyi
DS
🇨🇿Dmytro Skvarskyi
ELO 1640
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Skvarskyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H14-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.