17 Jul · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Cibik
ELO 1526
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cibik
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Barsa
ELO 1510
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Barsa🌟Barsa covers set handicap as underdog 79% (19)
Fair odds · Cibik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.