17 Jul · 22:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1435
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dvorak
MD
🇨🇿Miloslav Dvorak
ELO 1456
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.