17 Jul · 22:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1537
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Beran
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1509
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hendrych🌟Beran rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Beran
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.