17 Jul · 23:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hrncir
ELO 1535
FormLWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Beran
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1537
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
🌟Beran rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Beran
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.