17 Jul · 22:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1466
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Flesar
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1408
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H22-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-7)