17 Jul · 22:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Barsa
ELO 1510
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Barsa
LV
🇨🇿Lukas Vich
ELO 1464
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vich🌟Vich covers set handicap as underdog 67% (67)
Fair odds · Barsa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.