18 Jul · 14:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1477
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hons
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1464
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Hons
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.