18 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CK
🇨🇿Christian Kratochvil
ELO 1514
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dohnal
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1563
FormWLWLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kratochvil🌟Dohnal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (97)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H13-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.