18 Jul · 13:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1453
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zeman
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1485
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jokiel🌟Jokiel covers set handicap as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H6-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.