18 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1477
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hons
PP
🇨🇿Petr Pesout
ELO 1444
FormWWLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Hons
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.