18 Jul · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1563
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dohnal
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1526
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vodal🌟Vodal covers set handicap as underdog 78% (54)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H58-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.