18 Jul · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1418
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lysek
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1433
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
🌟Lysek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (13)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.