18 Jul · 16:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1578
FormLWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Trnka
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1662
FormWWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Trnka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+84
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)