18 Jul · 20:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1535
FormLWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Chaloupka
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1632
FormWWLWW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vitasek🌟Vitasek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (34)
Fair odds · Chaloupka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+97
H2H16-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+97)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-11)