18 Jul · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1546
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Holub
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1578
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.