18 Jul · 18:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1516
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1521
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sindler🌟Sindler rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (35)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H18-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.