18 Jul · 19:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1530
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Langer
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1547
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Langer rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (67)
Fair odds · Langer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.