18 Jul · 16:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇨🇿Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
ELO 1530
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jnr
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1516
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mandrysz🌟Jnr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (12)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H8-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.