18 Jul · 15:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇨🇿Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
ELO 1530
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jnr
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1521
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sindler🌟Sindler covers set handicap as underdog 81% (36)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H6-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.