18 Jul · 17:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1512
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Drozd
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1517
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.