18 Jul · 20:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1546
FormLLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Trnka
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1662
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Trnka
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+116
H2H5-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+116)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-3)