18 Jul · 20:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1484
FormWLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Hons
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1421
FormLWWWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Hons
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)