19 Jul · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1569
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Holub
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pokorny
ELO 1536
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H9-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.