19 Jul · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1551
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1567
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heuman🌟Heuman covers set handicap as underdog 83% (36)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H10-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.