19 Jul · 12:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1475
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Jokiel
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1471
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlad🌟Chlad covers set handicap as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Jokiel
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H4-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.