19 Jul · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1400
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Nemec
LP
🇨🇿Lukas Pour
ELO 1378
FormLLWLL
52%
48%
🌟Nemec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (78)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H17-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.