19 Jul · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1583
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dohnal
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1533
FormLWWLW
54%
46%
🌟Dohnal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (100)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H63-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.