19 Jul · 09:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1477
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1500
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 81% (42)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H18-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.