19 Jul · 10:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1500
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kral
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1450
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 81% (42)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H61-75
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.