19 Jul · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1480
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chvojka
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Volny
ELO 1447
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Volny covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Chvojka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.