19 Jul · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1387
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pesout
PP
🇨🇿Petr Pesout
ELO 1438
FormWWLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Pesout
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H6-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.